Puzzle: The individuals are given a simple test; there are 4 cards on the table, and each card has one letter on one side and one number on the other side of it. Obviously everyone can see only one side of the card. Two of the cards have letters and two of them have numbers facing up; A, 3, B, 7. This is the hypothesis: If there is an A on one side of a card, then other side should have 7 on it; and here is the question: Which two cards should be turned back to test this hypothesis.
The most intuitive answer of course would be A and 7, which is the wrong answer! A simple rule of formal logic tells us that “if p then q” is equivalent to “if not p then not q” (in logical term, these two are called Contrapositives). Going back to the question: “If there is an A on one side of a card, then other side should have 7 on it”. Therefore, if one side is NOT 7, the other side is NOT A. Now, in order to test the hypothesis we need to show two things: First turn the card with A on it to see if the other side is 7; AND turn the card with 3 on it, to see if the other side is NOT A. Turning the card with 7 on it does not show anything about our hypothesis. So the right answer is A and 3.
In the above example the hypothesis can be PROVED. This test by itself however has no practical significance; in the real world, we are interested in generalizing our results from our sample to a virtually infinite number of items. Let me give a simple example: I am trying to see if the coin that I have is fair. If the coin in actually fair, I expect that 50% of the time I toss it I get a tail and 50% of the time I get a head. But this expectation is fully satisfied only if I toss the coin infinite times (which of course never can happen). If for example I toss the coin 1000 times, I cannot PROVE that the coin is fair even if I have exactly 500 heads and 500 tails. All I can conclude is that the results PROVIDE SUPPORT for the idea that the coin is fair; nothing has been proved. Does it not sound a bit absurd? If in reality we cannot prove anything, so what is the point of doing all of that research? The shortest answer that I can give is that outside the fantasy world, everything is relative.
To be continued …
“outside the fantasy world, everything is relative”….that’s it….fantastic
Happy Saturday Kamyar. ok I recall an explanation of ’scientific method’ here it is if i recall—-Recognizing that Personal and Cultural beliefs influence both our Perceptions and our Interpretations of Natural Phenomena, we aim through the use of standard procedures and criteria to minimize those influences when developing a Theory. As a famous scientist once said, “Smart people (like smart lawyers) can come up with very good explanations for mistaken points of view.” In summary, the scientific method attempts to minimize the influence of bias or prejudice in the experimenter when testing an hypothesis or a theory. I am not a scientist I just thought I would add my 2 cents…lol take care Kamyar.
PS; I am standing in my garage having a yard sale, now this is day 2 and I am soooo tired of being forced to talk to strangers argh!! – love your blogs see ya! Lori:)